Nifty view for 29-04-2013

Nifty Daily chart:

Why Nifty could have topped off at 6112?

Between 5630 and 6112 in daily charts very good negative divergence and channel violation shown in blue confirms c ended at 6112...

So therefore it is not valid to consider that current upmove as continutation of  c from 4770....

Downmove started from 6112 has destination below sub 4500 levels in longer time frame..

Coming to short term:

As nifty didn't broken 5945.6 but broken yellow trendline shown in hrly charts got broken retracement is either X or B in larger degree...

X ended at 5924.6, Next is Y which mininmum need to go below prior low 5477..... 

X.c has negative divergence in 15 mins chart...

Cautious view/Alternative view:

If B in play, Nifty already is in  short term will come to levels 5650-75 if B.x in play if double zig zag

or deeper retracement upto 5500-5542 if B.b in play....

In both cases nifty will come above once more above 5924.6 to complete pattern with negative divergence... 

So next two three days are so crucial either C or B.x or B.b????

Nifty view for 23-04-2013

Nifty hit resistance line connecting 6111.8-5971.2 or just close to it...

Yesterday we discussed 15 mins/10 mins bewo both has potential negative divergence with sell but today it got vanished and made higher high so nifty has some more room to move up...

So labelling is temporarily avoided in longer frame as up move could be either Y.b.a or Y.b or B...

If in opening bell hrly issues sell then expected route map below:

Today eod some small negative divergence appearing as shown so nifty likely to cool off in the band 5675-5725 and after overlapping will head higher above current high....

What if hrly macd is not issuing sell in first 2 hrs then some more highs are due

...

Nifty view for 22-04-2013

As nifty broken the prior resistance (x), confirms higher degree Yb in play....

And this up move is not yet ended why because sell signal on 15 mins chart with negative divergence is yet to occur (preferred 10 mins chart)...  Violet channel already breached  but if Yb in play yellow channel will not be taken out.
So tentative labels are shown in 60 mins chart assuming yellow channel will not be taken out....

If yellow channel taken out, then Nifty doing higher degree retracement which likely go upto resistance 5971+....

Nifty view for 17-04-2013

My labels got again invalidated and many would have missed fruitful rally...
One thing I would like to communicate if I post support or resistance in some charts.. if those levels are taken with ease then chances are heading higher or lower is higher..

Nifty view for 16-04-2013

Now picture getting more clearer Z started from 5610.65...

Z.a 5610.65 5494.90 115.75
Z.b 5494.90 5592.85 -97.95 -0.85*a
Z.c 5592.85 54**

Z.c likely to do minimum 5494.90 but also below 5477.20 and can do upto 5405.5@1.618*a also...

Nifty view for 15-04-2013

Yesterday i mentioned Y ended at 5477.20 and reversal started from 5477.20 but nifty today opening bell tick has made macd to dip below prior low 5477.20 (macd only)...

Yesterday chart :

Potential negative divergence also macd didn't made lower low in yesterday moves; Also c done less than 61.8% of a and nifty overtaken prior resistance...So i can able to say caution only on longs

If nifty opened above 56xx levels this divergence also would have negated as it was potential only and nifty could continued Y.B as expected....

First morning tick has made divergence as valid....

Todays charts:



Nifty made lower low on macd chart below 5477.20 which gives clue that nifty likely to fall further till it posts positive divergence.....

3 mins chart didn't posted positive divergence so this downfall will continue...

So labels will be re arranged like this...

TZZ or ED in progress...

i/w: 5971.20 5604.85 366.35

ii/x: 5604.85 5754.60 -149.75

iii/y: 5754.60 5477.20 277.40

iv/xx: 5477.20 5544.50 -67.30

v/z: 5544.50

As per EW rule, third wave cannot be shortest of all so in our case vth wave should do less than 276.40 (ie. 1 pts less than iii) ...

so v/z likely to go upto 5266.10 to 5373.05 in coming days.....

Violet channels are approx wedge channel which nifty likely to follow....

Nifty view for 12-04-2013

As Nifty taken prior resistance in opening minutes which was at 5604 successfully, short term nifty reversed....

Y.B can be a triangle or flat or zig zag.... As pattern is premature it is difficult to say what pattern Y.B likely to take...

5643 and 5754.55 are two prices need to be watched....

Between two successive peaks 5610.xx and 5610.6 there is negative divergence so longs to be little cautious...
But pattern wise i am inclined y will start, it will be negate be in opening bell and nifty will head higher....

Nifty view for 11-04-2013

Nifty today seems completed Y.a at 5477.20....

How Y.a identified as ended....

60 mins chart shows a wedge broken out....

30 mins chart has made lower low and hence yet Y.a only over.... 
Y.b and Y.c yet to do....
Y.b can do min 5755 max 5945 in coming days....

15 mins charts confirms Y.a ended as positive divergence between Y.a.a and Y.a.c

3 mins chart shows final leg postive divergence ( yesterday & todays move)

Above 5604 only, confirms Y.B started from 5477.2.....

1 min chart shows zig zag in progress rather than impulse labels....
Triangles wont appear in ii nd wave (shown in light green)... 
channel broken too....

Nifty view for 10-04-2013

Expected target of overlap at 5604.85 min not done and nifty lost it momentum and divergence which was clearly appearing in 2 mins charts between c.iii and c.v...

I was disappointed as it failed to overlap and there is not divergence between a and c marked in 2 mins charts.. yet nifty declined....

Though i am not convinced with it.. i am posting it to you where i failed to identify the end so my friends i expect a reply from u....

Move from 5603 to 5487 is not appears as impulse and another corrective...
(a) done.. 1 min chart made lower low.. yet (b) and  (c) are pending...
(b) can bounce to levels of 5555-60
(c) again will go below 5487 to complete pattern....

End of this downmove likely we will get positive divergence on 30 mins with buy signal....

Nifty View for 09-04-2013

Nothing much to update...
Nifty likely to hit shown green target with in next two days before 10th evening...

Nifty View for 08-04-2013

Nifty negated 30 mins divergence which was the key to confirm Y.a ended but as it is negated... my labels gone wrong...

So bounce likely which may not do much higher levels as earlier expected....

As hrly macd issued buy eod and 30 mins divergence got negated still Y.a continuing....

Nifty View for 05-04-2013

Nifty completed expected target 5574... assumed bounce didnot occurred upto 5690 and drifted all the way to 5564.... As positive divergence is likely we will get in hrly and if bounce occurs it will be Y.b....

Some of the charts which shows why Y.a ended today at 5566.....

Nifty View for 04-04-2013

Assumed ivth didnot materialised like complex corrective and posted negative divergence in 7 mins chart and  didnot even crossed yesterday high apart from that it made a gap down with unfilled gap from 5850-5854 ...

Once the support broken 5690-95 levels, nosedived and 2 mins chart posted lower low... No positive divergence is visible....

Tomorrow all rises to 5680-90 to be utilised to short for 5574-5462 in coming days....

Nifty expected to range bound between 5625-5685 likely and finally will break down tmrw as shown in 2 mins chart....

First assuming corrective Y.a in play:

Most bearish counts which might come into picture if postive divergence negates in hrly macd...

I posting this view to make u aware a massive dive might be ahead...

Nifty View for 03-04-2013

Yesterday multiple probabilities resolved to one direction ie., iv wave up move which is likely before end of day tmrw...

Tomorrow morning session nifty likely to decline to 5711 but not below 5695... Then a sharp rise above 5754.6 likely which will complete the pattern.....

Break below 5695 will confirm larger degree Y.a.v downward wave in progress (160-280 pts decline)...

Negative divergence shown in red colour confirms upmove likely to end soon....

w/a: 5604.85 5720.95 116.10
x/b: 5720.95 5675.90 -45.05 -0.39*a
y/c: 5675.90 5754.00* 78.10* 0.67*a
c already done minimum requirement of a. But with persistence negative divergence it can run upto 5863 also...
It is difficult to say c.iii ended at 5854 it can subdivide too (for this also macd should post very high reading/ divergence need to be negated)... only break below 5695 will confirm this upmove ended...

I am more inclined to abc (though b=0.39*a) rather than wxy because during this upmove should have posted higher high on macd but didnot happened so far ...
If macd does, y will subdivide into abc i will go with labels wxy till then abc rules...

Nifty View for 02-04-2013

Todays Nifty move has created mutilple probabilities as the wave patterns are incomplete it can take any shape

Break of 5620 means (Red line), 160pts-259 pts decline from 5720 (current high) or new high will occur..

If support holds (5620 levels) in tmrw decline (Route map shown in orange), breach of yellow UTL(5875-5900) levels will be attained in coming days...
Alternatively blue in play till 5795 levels not attained...

So wait and take positions accordingly..